On Assessing the Sensitivity to Uncertainty in Distribution Network Design
نویسندگان
چکیده
The design of distribution networks is prone to risks due to the uncertainties associated with factors that change over time. In this paper we present a new method to identify those factors that the structure of a distribution network is most sensitive to. The new method combines simulation and the Taguchi technique to allow a wide range of factor uncertainties to be evaluated without excessive computation time and effort. The simulation model developed is based on real world data of a European after-sales business in the automotive industry. We show that the optimum design is most at risk due to the uncertainties associated with stock holding costs and delivery frequencies rather than customer volume changes and transport tariffs. This was found to be counterintuitive by the business managers and fore-warned them of the likely future risks.
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